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A spatiotemporal probabilistic model-based temperature-augmented probabilistic load flow considering PV generations
Published in John Wiley and Sons Ltd
2019
Volume: 29
   
Issue: 5
Abstract
The probabilistic steady-state forecasting of a PV-integrated power system requires a suitable forecasting model capable of accurately characterizing the uncertainties and correlations among multivariate inputs. The critical and foremost difficulties in the development of such a model include the accurate representation of the characterizing features such as complex nonstationary pattern, non-Gaussianity, and spatial and temporal correlations. This paper aims at developing an improved high-dimensional multivariate spatiotemporal model through enhanced preprocessing, transformation techniques, principal component analysis, and a suitable time series model that is capable of accurately modeling the trend in the variance of uncertain inputs. The proposed model is applied to the probabilistic load flow carried out on the modified Indian utility 62-bus transmission system using temperature-augmented system model for an operational planning study. A detailed discussion of various results has indicated the effectiveness of the proposed model in capturing the aforesaid characterizing features of uncertain inputs. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
About the journal
JournalData powered by TypesetInternational Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems
PublisherData powered by TypesetJohn Wiley and Sons Ltd
ISSN20507038