Overturning criterion is an important parameter for designing cantilever retaining wall. This study adopts relevance vector machine (RVM) based first order second method (FOSM), minimax probability machine regression (MPMR) based FOSM and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) based FOSM for determination of reliability index of cantilever retaining wall based on overturning criterion. RVM, MPMR and MARS have been used to overcome the limitations of the FOSM method. An example is illustrated how the proposed RVM based FOSM, MPMR based FOSM and MARS based FOSM analysis can be carried out. A comparative study has been carried out between the developed techniques. The results demonstrate that the developed techniques have ability to overcome the limitations of FOSM. This article describes new methods based on RVM, MPMR and MARS for determination of reliability index of retaining wall. The adopted methods eliminate the limitation of FOSM. Copyright © 2021 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.