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Simulation-optimization framework for multi-site multi-season hybrid stochastic streamflow modeling
Kasthrirengan Srinivasan, K. P. Sudheer, Srivastav R, Sudheer K.P.
Published in Elsevier B.V.
2016
Volume: 542
   
Pages: 506 - 531
Abstract
A simulation-optimization (S-O) framework is developed for the hybrid stochastic modeling of multi-site multi-season streamflows. The multi-objective optimization model formulated is the driver and the multi-site, multi-season hybrid matched block bootstrap model (MHMABB) is the simulation engine within this framework. The multi-site multi-season simulation model is the extension of the existing single-site multi-season simulation model. A robust and efficient evolutionary search based technique, namely, non-dominated sorting based genetic algorithm (NSGA - II) is employed as the solution technique for the multi-objective optimization within the S-O framework. The objective functions employed are related to the preservation of the multi-site critical deficit run sum and the constraints introduced are concerned with the hybrid model parameter space, and the preservation of certain statistics (such as inter-annual dependence and/or skewness of aggregated annual flows). The efficacy of the proposed S-O framework is brought out through a case example from the Colorado River basin. The proposed multi-site multi-season model AMHMABB (whose parameters are obtained from the proposed S-O framework) preserves the temporal as well as the spatial statistics of the historical flows. Also, the other multi-site deficit run characteristics namely, the number of runs, the maximum run length, the mean run sum and the mean run length are well preserved by the AMHMABB model. Overall, the proposed AMHMABB model is able to show better streamflow modeling performance when compared with the simulation based SMHMABB model, plausibly due to the significant role played by: (i) the objective functions related to the preservation of multi-site critical deficit run sum; (ii) the huge hybrid model parameter space available for the evolutionary search and (iii) the constraint on the preservation of the inter-annual dependence. Split-sample validation results indicate that the AMHMABB model is able to predict the characteristics of the multi-site multi-season streamflows under uncertain future. Also, the AMHMABB model is found to perform better than the linear multi-site disaggregation model (MDM) in preserving the statistical as well as the multi-site critical deficit run characteristics of the observed flows. However, a major drawback of the hybrid models persists in case of the AMHMABB model as well, of not being able to synthetically generate enough number of flows beyond the observed extreme flows, and not being able to generate values that are quite different from the observed flows. © 2016
About the journal
JournalData powered by TypesetJournal of Hydrology
PublisherData powered by TypesetElsevier B.V.
ISSN00221694
Open AccessNo
Concepts (25)
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    Evolutionary algorithms
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    Genetic algorithms
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    Multiobjective optimization
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    Statistical methods
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    Stochastic systems
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    Stream flow
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    BLOCK BOOTSTRAPS
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    COLORADO RIVER BASIN
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    HYBRID STOCHASTIC MODEL
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    Multi-objective optimization models
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    NON-DOMINATED SORTING
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    NSGA-II
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    SIMULATION OPTIMIZATION
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    STOCHASTIC STREAMFLOW
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    Stochastic models
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    Annual variation
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    Bootstrapping
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    Flow modeling
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    Genetic algorithm
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    Hydrological modeling
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    Model validation
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    Optimization
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    Seasonality
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    Streamflow
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    COLORADO BASIN [NORTH AMERICA]