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Statistical and trend analyses of rainfall: a case study of Bharathapuzha river basin, Kerala, India
, Anupama C.
Published in Informa UK Limited
2014
Volume: 20
   
Issue: 2
Pages: 119 - 132
Abstract
This study aims to determine trends in the annual and seasonal total rainfall over Bharathapuzha catchment of Kerala using 33 years (1976-2008) of monthly rainfall data at four raingauge stations (Eruthempathy, Mangalam dam, Thrithala, and Malampuzha dam). The procedure is based on the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for the trend and the nonparametric Sens method for the magnitude of the trend. From Mann-Kendall analysis for annual rainfall and southwest monsoon rainfall, a positive trend was observed for Eruthempathy and Malampuza dam stations. However, at all four stations considered, a negative trend was observed for the northeast monsoon rainfall, positive trend for nonmonsoon rainfall and premonsoon except at Eruthempathy. From Sens analysis, it was observed for an annual rainfall series a maximum increase of rainfall at Malampuza dam by 1.55 mm/year and a maximum reduction at Thrithala station by -5.80 mm/year. For southwest monsoon, a maximum increase of 2.09 mm/year at Eruthempathy station, and a maximum reduction of -9.81 mm/year observed at Thrithala station. On the other hand, a maximum reduction of -2.63 mm/year observed at Mangalam Dam station for northeast monsoon. For nonmonsoon, a maximum increase of 0.85 mm/year observed at Malampuza Dam and 2.20 mm/year at Thrithala. A similar trend observed from liner regression analysis, existed for annual and seasonal rainfall series estimated by Mann-Kendall Z statistics and Sens Slope method. Overall trend analysis for annual rainfall reveals stations in the north and east shows an increasing trend and stations in the south and west a decreasing trend. Current study will direct the future planning and management of water resources at Bharathapuzha river basin. © 2013 © 2013 Indian Society for Hydraulics.
About the journal
JournalISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
PublisherInforma UK Limited
ISSN0971-5010
Open AccessNo